Prediction Markets 101
Stumble It!Prediction Markets apply group intelligence techniques such as the wisdom of crowds to provide new insights into certain types of decisions about the future which an enterprise must make. According to Andrew McAfee of MIT Sloan School of Management and the author of the book Enterprise 2.0. "They may seem like strange beasts but prediction markets are simply stock markets; they contain securities that are bought and sold by traders." Read his excellent 2-page introduction.
Read Prediction Markets: A Teaching Moment by Andrew McAfee
About Ken Thompson
Ken Thompson is an expert practitioner in the area of bioteaming, swarming, virtual enterprise networks, virtual professional communities, virtual teams and management simulation and has published two landmark books:
Bioteams: High Performance Teams Based on Nature's Best Designs
The Networked Enterprise: Competing for the future through Virtual Enterprise Networks
Ken writes the highly popular bioteams blog which has over 500 articles on all aspects of bioteams (aka organizational biomimicry) - in other words how human groups can learn from nature's best teams.
Ken is also founder of an exciting European technology company Swarmteams which provides unique patent-pending bioteaming technologies for all shapes and sizes of groups, social networks, business clusters, virtual/mobile communities and enterprises. Swarmteams enables groups to be more responsive and agile by fully integrating their mobile phones and the web with bioteam working techniques.
The latest Swarmteams implementation is SwarmTribes which helps social object owners (e.g. musicians/bands, sports teams, film-makers) and good cause sponsors (e.g. Volunteering, Environmental, Public Health) to form unique collaborations with their fans/supporters for mutual benefit.
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Bioteams Books Reviews
Seven team decision-making methods
The way a team decides to decide is one of the most important decisions it makes. In the excellent book, “Why Teams Don’t Work” the authors, Harvey Robbins and Michael Finley, identify seven key decision-making methods for teams.
Buy it now from:
Amazon.Com
Amazon.Co.UK
Related Online Collaboration Techniques Articles
Virtual collaboration can use film industry techniques too
For example the “High Concept” technique
In another article I introduced an excellent paper from the London School of Economics which proposed a number of areas where virtual teams and virtual networks could learn from the film industry.
Social Propagation is the secret to organizational and team learning
and the most evolved non-human species on the planet is not who you think it is! Arie de Geus is credited by many as the inventor of the concept of "the learning organisation". In his book "The Living Company" Arie describes an interview with Professor Alan Wilson, distinguished zoologist and botanist.
Buy it now from:
Amazon.Com
Amazon.Co.UK
Swift Trust: essential for virtual collaboration
Science Daily, “Establishing Trust Online Is Critical For Online Communication Say NJIT Experts” reports the conclusions of a paper “Swift Trust in Virtual Teams".
Hi - The PM Clusters lead collective intelligence, wisdom of crowds and enterprise prediction markets. Next action/research confab in Seattle 26 Feb.
http://pmclusters.com/
Info?
Jennifer M. Hulett
http://www.pmclusters.com
jennifer.hulett@pmclusters.com
Bus. 714-784-0754
Cell 714-458-3826
Fax 714-249-4734
Skype: Jen_Hulett
Connect with me at Twitter Facebook LinkedIn
HP research shows that a pool of about nine people can consistently make better predictions than even its most perceptive individual member.
But how do you tap that knowledge while filtering out the biases?
1. make the prediction process anonymous
2. establish the risk attitudes of the participants
3. ask people to back up their predictions with real money
For more on this research see
http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/about/prediction.html
Thanks to Paul Sweeney for sourcing this!