Prediction Markets 101

December 28, 2009 | article by Ken Thompson in Online Collaboration Techniques (47)

Prediction Markets apply group intelligence techniques such as the wisdom of crowds to provide new insights into certain types of decisions about the future which an enterprise must make. According to Andrew McAfee of MIT Sloan School of Management and the author of the book Enterprise 2.0. "They may seem like strange beasts but prediction markets are simply stock markets; they contain securities that are bought and sold by traders." Read his excellent 2-page introduction.

Crowd of Runners

Read Prediction Markets: A Teaching Moment by Andrew McAfee

About Ken Thompson

Ken Thompson is an expert practitioner in the area of bioteaming, swarming, virtual enterprise networks, virtual professional communities, virtual teams and management simulation and has published two landmark books:

Bioteams: High Performance Teams Based on Nature's Best Designs

The Networked Enterprise: Competing for the future through Virtual Enterprise Networks

Ken writes the highly popular bioteams blog which has over 500 articles on all aspects of bioteams (aka organizational biomimicry) - in other words how human groups can learn from nature's best teams.

Ken is also founder of an exciting European technology company Swarmteams which provides unique patent-pending bioteaming technologies for all shapes and sizes of groups, social networks, business clusters, virtual/mobile communities and enterprises. Swarmteams enables groups to be more responsive and agile by fully integrating their mobile phones and the web with bioteam working techniques.

The latest Swarmteams implementation is SwarmTribes which helps social object owners (e.g. musicians/bands, sports teams, film-makers) and good cause sponsors (e.g. Volunteering, Environmental, Public Health) to form unique collaborations with their fans/supporters for mutual benefit.

Tags: collective intelligence, wisdom of crowds

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Hi - The PM Clusters lead collective intelligence, wisdom of crowds and enterprise prediction markets. Next action/research confab in Seattle 26 Feb.

http://pmclusters.com/

Info?

Jennifer M. Hulett
http://www.pmclusters.com
jennifer.hulett@pmclusters.com
Bus. 714-784-0754
Cell 714-458-3826
Fax 714-249-4734
Skype: Jen_Hulett
Connect with me at Twitter Facebook LinkedIn

Posted by: John T Maloney | December 28, 2009 5:35 PM

HP research shows that a pool of about nine people can consistently make better predictions than even its most perceptive individual member.

But how do you tap that knowledge while filtering out the biases?

1. make the prediction process anonymous
2. establish the risk attitudes of the participants
3. ask people to back up their predictions with real money

For more on this research see

http://www.hpl.hp.com/research/about/prediction.html

Thanks to Paul Sweeney for sourcing this!

Posted by: ken thompson | January 25, 2010 2:56 PM

Bioteams Books Reviews

Leadership and Self-Deception

June 2, 2008 | article by Ken Thompson in Book Reviews (37)

A few months ago I read the book "Leadership and Self-Deception". Then I became a friend of the Arbinger Institute, went through some training with them in London and may be involved with them in the future. So I suppose the book inspired me – here’s why! Guest book review by Mario Gastaldi.

Buy it now from:
Amazon.Com
Amazon.Co.UK

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Click here to check all Bioteams book reviews

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